First-Released Concept Announcement

The above initial concept is based on three articles. These three articles are

1. Three possible ceasefire lines in the Russian-Ukrainian war;
2. Whose war? The players who win or lose in the Russia-Ukraine war;
3. “Plan for Taiwan’s reunification: Made in 2012, in progress in 2026.
(Part I) Translators for Chinese political language are needed.”

These three articles have been submitted to several leading political science journals since April 26, 2022, May 23, 2022, June 18, 2022, and October 3, 2022. These top journals and publishers are located in several countries, including the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, and even Russia. This essentially fulfills the elements of copyright creation. In the above tables, which provide proof of copyright, the date of first submission is considered the date of first publication of these articles.

The author(s) declare(s) that his/her copyright is first released by him/her on the basis of the concepts listed above with good reason.

These first-published concepts are explained in detail by the authors as follows..

1. The Ukraine Trench

First published: June 18, 2022

The author directly asserts that one of the main goals of the Russian-Ukrainian war was to create the “Ukraine Trench.”

Some people may dispute that the main goal of the Russia-Ukraine war was to establish the “Ukraine Trench.” But there is one indisputable fact. One of the most important results of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the “Ukraine divide.”

It is a geopolitical divide, an economic divide, and a multifunctional divide that blocks military exchanges, political exchanges, economic exchanges, cultural exchanges, and the free movement of people.

The tasks of the Ukraine divide are as follows:

1.1. To drive Russia out of Europe on a cultural basis. To reject Russians as Europeans in the sense of a popular cultural identity. To portray Russians as enemies of Europeans.

1.2. To separate Russia from Europe geopolitically. To make Russia an enemy of Europe through war. To establish a military and geopolitical division on Ukrainian soil. To block complete compromise and cooperation between Russia and Europe for at least the next 50 years.

1.3. Fundamental weakening of Europe’s political power. Expelling Russia from Europe would greatly weaken Europe’s political power in the following ways.

(1) losing its geostrategic depth;

(2) losing a historic opportunity to integrate the political parts of continental Europe;

(3) losing an important base for the supply of raw materials;

(4) rising military costs to pay for complete hostility with Russia;

(5) rising economic costs and falling profit margins;

(6) Shrinking and declining political and military status;

(7) China would change its fundamental policy toward Europe, in which China has supported a united and strong Europe for more than 30 years;

(8) The possibility of a hostile attitude toward China, which would lead to a comprehensive counterattack by China.

1.4. Causing ongoing chaos in the core European region. The author predicts that Ukraine is very likely to be fragmented during or after the war. This kind of sad outcome may take the form of a Somalization of Ukraine, a Yugoslavization of Ukraine, or a coexistence of Somalization and Yugoslavization..

2. The border wall of the Russian-Ukrainian war

First published: April 26, 2022

There are two walls that limit the scope for fighting and ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The western wall consists of the Dnieper River and part of the Black Sea coast. The eastern wall consists of the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia cannot break through the western border wall. At the same time, the US group cannot overcome the eastern border wall. This prediction is valid at least until the end of 2026. Perhaps even longer.

3. The Somalization of Ukraine

First published: May 23, 2022.

Ukraine cannot wage war against Russia on its own. Economic and material support from the US and European powers is an important asset. Another necessary asset is the support of the armed forces of its local neighbors. These neighbors did not intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian war for Ukraine’s sake. They did so in the interests of their own countries. Even if Ukraine gains a slight advantage in central Ukraine with the support of troops from neighboring countries, these interests still do not belong to Ukraine. These local countries will certainly cash in on their initial investments in central Ukraine and even in western Ukraine. One way to achieve this is to establish some local governments that are independent of the central government of Ukraine. This has led to the emergence of the Somalization of Ukraine.

4. The Yugoslavization of Ukraine

First announced: May 23, 2022.

If there is no quick end to the war or a lasting ceasefire, Russia risks being drawn into a protracted war. Russia will face long-term military pressure from the US bloc in central Ukraine, where the US has absolute supremacy. Russia will have to develop a complex plan to cope with the pressure from the US. One of these plans is the creation of up to seven or more local regimes. These regimes will not be subordinate to each other, but will be dependent on Russia. This will lead to a Yugoslavization of Ukraine.

5. Russia is virtually invincible

First published: May 23, 2022.

It was practically impossible for the US bloc to break through the eastern border wall of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is the administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This would guarantee Russia’s invincibility in this war. This prediction is valid at least until the end of 2026. There is a high probability that this prediction will remain true for a long time, if not forever.

6. A war to divide and weaken Europe.

First published: June 18, 2022

This war is very difficult to define. It is commonly referred to as the Ukraine war or the Russia-Ukraine war. In fact, however, it is not just a war between Ukraine and Russia. Nor was it a war between Russia and the United States. To be precise, it was a war between the American bloc and Russia. And its main goal is to divide and weaken Europe.
Russia will not lose this war. Nor will the US lose this war.
The biggest losers would be Ukraine and Europe.
Ukraine will inevitably end up being Somalized or Yugoslavized.
Europe will be the biggest loser in the short, medium, and long term. The expulsion of Russia from Europe will have at least the following side effects.
6.1 Fragmentation of Europe. Some of the local states surrounding Ukraine could win in the short term, so they want to prolong the war. But the core European powers expect a ceasefire as soon as possible to minimize their losses.
6.2 Europe generally loses geostrategic depth. Driving Russia out of Europe will not fulfill the dream of shifting the problems to Asia. Due to China’s superior diplomatic skills, an excluded Russia would increase China’s geostrategic depth, not decrease it. Russia will prefer to penetrate Europe rather than expand into Asia due to its national and ethnic interests.
6.3 Europe has lost the historic opportunity to integrate Russia into a larger Europe.
6.4 With Russia, Europe is losing a large and diverse raw material base, which will lead to higher costs and lower profit margins. This inevitably leads to a shrinking of the secondary sector. The secondary sector is one of the most important forces in national competition and warfare.
6.5 The spiral of hostility and increased armament. Total hostility, followed by increased armament. Increased armament then leads to increased hostility. Rising hostility leads to increased military spending.
6.6 Europe’s political status is rapidly declining. China will change its fundamental policy toward Europe, in which China has supported Europe as a united and strong political power for the past 30 years. The Arab world and Africa no longer expect Europe to take a political leadership role.

7. A colonized Europe

First published: June 18, 2022

Statistically speaking, it is completely wrong to describe all European leaders as politically incompetent. But so many European heads of state and government have ‘actively’ participated in a war to divide and weaken Europe itself. This is completely absurd politically, philosophically, and historically. There can only be one possibility—that Europe was a colony of the United States.
Passively forced into a war to weaken itself, Europe is in every sense a colony of an empire.

8. China changes its fundamental policy toward Europe

First published: June 18, 2022

Europe had actively participated in the ‘boycott of Chinese cotton’. Europe also actively participated in ‘blaming China for the epidemic’. Even if the basis for these two actions is absurd, this is no reason for China to change its fundamental policy toward Europe.
Over the past 30 years, China has supported Europe as a strong and united political power. The reason for this policy was that China believed that a strong and united Europe would help China reduce political and military pressure from the United States.
But one perspective has been clearly demonstrated. A colonized Europe would definitely be a burden to China, not a help, in the script of the conflict between China and the United States.
China will certainly change its fundamental policy of supporting the strength and unity of Europe. Even triggering, interfering, expanding, and prolonging chaos in Europe will be an important tool for China. This would undermine the United States’ ability to wage a long-term war. It is even possible that this option is already in China’s toolbox.

9. 2022 is the first year of Europe’s decline

First published: June 18, 2022

In 2022, there is a war. And the European nations have actively engaged in a war to divide and weaken themselves. This marks the beginning of Europe’s decline. As a result of this war, Europe will suffer major losses in the following ways.
9.1 Europe will lose its geostrategic depth;
9.2 Europe will lose a large base of raw materials;
9.3 Europe will be plunged into prolonged chaos;
9.4 Europe will become a colony;
9.5 Europe will lose its historic opportunity to conduct oil and gas transactions in euros.
9.6 Europe will face Russia’s full hostility in the short to medium term (50 to 100 years).
9.7 China and the Arab world no longer support Europe as a strong geopolitical power.

10. Lokale Länder schicken Truppen in den Russland-Ukraine-Krieg

First published: June 18, 2022

It is a fundamental fact that Ukraine cannot resist Russian forces. Even the mere financial and material support from the United States and core European countries is not enough. Armed forces from Ukraine’s neighboring countries are another important pillar for sustaining the war against Russia in the long term.
Importantly, Ukraine’s neighbors are willing to participate in the war on their own initiative.
These countries are not intervening in this war for Ukraine’s sake. They are doing so for their own national interests. These local countries surrounding Ukraine are the few European countries that can benefit from this war.

11. China will launch its campaign to reunify the two sides of the strait in 2026

First announced: June 18, 2022

Prediction: China will launch its operation to reunify the two sides of the strait in 2026. The operation could begin any day between April and September. However, it is almost certain that the military operation will be completed by the end of October. The other powers will not be able to stop, delay, or reverse it.

12. The G2 era will begin in 2026.

First announced: June 18, 2022

Prediction: China will launch its operation to reunify the Taiwan Strait in 2026. The other powers will be unable to stop, delay, or reverse it. This action will officially herald the beginning of the G2 era.

13. China’s nuclear power

First published: June 18, 2022

China will announce its credible nuclear forces toward the end of 2025. It will have about 3,000 nuclear warheads and the corresponding payloads. The purpose of disclosing these credible nuclear forces is to remove the nuclear option from the script of a possible conflict between the US and China.
The authors argue that, from a military perspective, China’s possession of 1,000 warheads would be sufficient to remove the nuclear option from the script of a conflict between the US and China. But 3,000 warheads are necessary to convince the American electorate and public opinion of the nuclear option.

14. Taiwan has lost “one country, two systems”

First published: October 3, 2022

Mainland China’s negotiation proposal was explicitly presented on August 10, 2022. In the author’s view, no one in Taiwan will be given the mandate to accept these clear terms set by mainland China. The author concludes that Taiwan has completely lost the chance for one country, two systems.
Even if the Taiwanese military were to surrender at the forefront during the military process, it would not be enough to dissuade the mainland from these fundamental terms.
There is a possibility that the Chinese central government may transfer some of its governing power to the local level. However, there is also a strong possibility that the central government will rule Taiwan strictly.

15. Two to three road channels will connect Taiwan and the mainland

First published: October 3, 2022

From a historical perspective, eliminating Taiwan’s maritime attributes is the most cost-effective solution for governing Taiwan. China would not incur high costs for the political, economic, and military defense of Taiwan.

In addition, there is considerable political leeway to implement this plan.

Once Taiwan becomes a peninsula or land bridge (or let’s call it a land sword), it would not only revoke Taiwan’s maritime rights, but also severely restrict the maritime rights of Japan and South Korea. This would enable China to maintain a land power system at a lower cost.

Note:

You are welcomed to PPPNET and to register your copyright for your original concepts, original ideas, and any types of articles.

You can register your copyright here based on articles you have already published on another platform. Similarly, you can claim your copyright based on articles that are already scheduled for publication. This copyright statement may also apply to your contributions to PPPNET.

There are no “academic requirements” to reject or deny you. The only hard requirements are your unique thoughts, opinions, predictions that do not conform to mainstream opinions, and unique insights you have gained while researching history.

In short, unique, different, original, belonging to you, ahead of others, the first; as long as such a label exists, your manuscript can be published on PPPNET. You can assert your copyright on PPPNET with one of these labels.

Restriction:

Unfortunately, I must mention restrictions. This platform is limited to reflecting on war, economics, and national interests in terms of politics, philosophy, history, or geography. This PPPNET network is not a good platform for publishing detailed combat experiences, combat skills, army leadership, command art, weapon characteristics, etc.
Please contribute to PPPNET. Before the contribution portal is set up, contributions can be submitted via the contact form. (The contribution portal is in planning.